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In January theforeign tradeThe data again abovemarketexpectedYear-on-year growth in both ten,tradeSurplus also widened.
The general administration of customs data showed yesterday, in January, in our countryImport and exportTotal 382.4 billionThe dollar, an increase of 10.3%.Among them, the exports of $207.13 billion, an increase of 10.6%.Imported us $175.27 billion, an increase of 10%.Trade surplus of $31.86 billion, to expand by 14%.
Behind than expected data, widely judgment is the European and American market recovery factor and the Spring Festival holiday.At the end of last year, however, again for the port trade artificially high, also caused the industry since last yearThe yuanUnilateral appreciation of the dispute, and concern about the situation of foreign trade.
This year, industry insiders, the possible some substantial export promotion policy, change the unilateral renminbi appreciation expectations, may be taken into account.
Foreign trade more than expected last January
Although China import and export in the New Year to a good start, but the trend is continuing, there is still a big question.
In general, the Chinese lunar New Year and the dislocation of the Gregorian calendar, in the Spring Festival around months of data are difficult to predict.Brought forward from the point of the results, in January, seems to be a bigger factor.
Anz bank chief economist for greater China, said liu ligang at anz import growth is higher than market expectations, imported goods before the lunar New Year are arranged in advance.In addition, consistent with past seasonal patterns, China's port iron ore inventories in obvious rise over the past few weeks.
Despite the Spring Festival factor, as well as Europe and the United States at the beginning of routine to fill inventory, another possible factor is that us and European markets have been warmer.
By country, in January, china-eu bilateral trade value 341.19 billion yuan, an increase of 14.6%.Sino-us bilateral trade value is 299.23 billion yuan, an increase of 8.8%.
Sino-us relations research center, tsinghua university, a senior researcher at Zhou Shijian analysis, as most of the institutions, judging by the European and American economy improves, demand is growing.The United States may have been from last year's slow recovery to moderate growth, while Europe into a slow recovery from recession.Due to China's 32% export in Europe and the United States, which is natural the impact on the market.
He judge overall external conditions this year will be better than in 2013, but the overall trend is still cautious optimism, but the rising labor costs and unilateral revaluation of RMB exchange rate is one of the biggest risk factor ".
The more contentious unilateral appreciation
The unilateral renminbi appreciation since last year, for the negative impact of the foreign trade has aroused much attention.
Zhou Shijian said that the RMB exchange rate has become a squeezing profit margins, foreign trade enterprises affect the foreign trade development the biggest disadvantage."Why the dollar as the yuan rises, the dollar renminbi also litres?"He questioned said.
As the quantitative easing of America, most emerging economies, currency devaluation in succession since last year, but the yuan is still in unilateral appreciation against the dollar.
The world by the administration of the international investment at the Chinese academy of social sciences, director zhang Ming said, citing data, December 13, 2013 years of the yuan appreciation against the dollar by 2.8%, exchange rate has risen 19.3% against the yen.Since 2013, the dollar remains strong against major global currencies, RMB effective exchange rate in 2013 caused a strong appreciation.
Zhang Ming thinks,The yuanforThe dollarExchange rate is close to equilibrium level, RMB effective exchange rate may even slightly overestimated.
At the same time, the internationalisation of the renminbi is also significant progress.As of the third quarter of 2013, cross-border yuantradeSettlement of accounts for the proportion of China's cross-border trade settlement is about 17%.As of August 2013, the yuan has grown as the world's eighth largest trading currency and the twelfth largest settlement currency.
Liu ligang at anz believes that in the process of RMB internationalization behind in full swing, but hides a lot of cross-border arbitrage and arbitrage behavior.
He said, in the fourth quarter of last year trade between the mainland and Hong Kong arbitrage, are likely to be unilateral renminbi appreciationexpectedThe induced.Released in the fourth quarter of last year, the mainland and Hong Kong's trade data appear bigger difference, cross-border trade continues to induce capital inflows and mainland yuan deposits in Hong Kong.
"And the larger spreads, and unilateral renminbi appreciation expectations, will push forward the mainland and hong trade back and forth. Inelastic exchange rate formation mechanism, as well as the more open capital account, will further cause such trade back and forth."
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