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SyriaThe deterioration of the situation, is stepping upThe global economyThe potential risk of "stagflation", and accelerate the global economyfinancialmarketThe state transitions.The impact may be significantly greater than in emerging marketsThe United StatesDifferentiation, led by the developed countries, the global economy could worsen.And geopolitical instability will also enlarge the uncertainty of the existing global economy, global factors movement slowing,The internationaltradegrowthMore hasten is weak.
Dark cloud city city, to destroy, JiaGuang Japanese Jin Lin open.The shadows of the financial crisis has not yet dispersed, Syria's war clouds swept again.The day before yesterday, Mr Obama said, the United States is settled, the Syrian government in the near future large-scale use of chemical weapons attacks on civilians.Although Obama is not yet finally decided to armed crackdown on Syrian government forces, but local war is imminent and explosive.As the economist, the author has no intention of is unable to analyze the future evolution of the political situation and the possible forms of the outbreak of war, but, as the nation's third President Jefferson said, "for the punishment of war itself as a result of punishment as the victims themselves".From the economic point of view, if a local war, Syria has few winners economic world.
Specifically, the deterioration of the situation in Syria will triple adverse influence on the global economic recovery.
First of all, geopolitical instability will increase the risk of a potential "stagflation" in the global economy.For the global economy, Syria is a small country, but to get involved in Syria's turmoil, and even may be directly involved in the military, is important in the global economy of the country.It now appears that a military strike is almost inevitable, but won't, even if short-term civil war in the global economy growth would be subject to a certain degree of confidence.Right now, Europe and the United States economic recovery are in a state of flux, the global economic recovery foundation is not solid, endogenous growth momentum has certain reflect but also depends on the confidence.Once war broke out, tensions escalate, consumer and investor confidence will be a big hit, global growth could significantly increase the pressure.More importantly, the deterioration of the situation in Syria has made the international oil prices soared above $110 a barrel, if an open war, the Middle East oil transportation safety could face a bigger threat, and push oil prices continued to rise.Originally, the global "lag" pressure is the main line, if the "bulge" untimely supply shock caused the pressure, so the formation of the pattern of "stagflation" and reinforcement will bring each economy policy dilemma and recovery difficulty.
Not far from the historical YanJian.In the gulf war in 1991, only 2.2% of global economic growth, inflation rate is as high as 17%, the next few years the global economy is always in a "growth rate lower than 2.3%, inflation rate is higher than 2.3%" of the extreme state of stagnation.The international monetary fund (imf) [microblogging] expectations of global economic growth this year of 3.1%, expectations of inflation, was 3.8%, from data to see the prototype of the existing "stagflation" pressure, and it still expected presumption based on oil prices dropped 4.7% this year.Visible, Syria once the war, the global economy will probably resulting in macro policy most are reluctant to face, and least able to cope with the stagflation of the nightmare.
Second, geopolitical instability will speed up the global economy and financial markets from "risk off" to "risk on" state transitions.Into a geopolitical is behind the big game, the United States, Britain, France and Germany, it seems, are still not in hand truly, but the basic stand in the same camp, Russia also performed on the Syrian issue, the antagonism between the two camps is serious, once America's really military action, big impact could be further upgraded.
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